R.I.P. HD DVD (2002-2008)
By PaulIt’s over.
The white flag has flown. The tattered remnants of the Red army have laid down their arms. The bitter conflict that has divided the land is now decided. It is time for the period of reconciliation to begin.
Today, February 19, 2008, the final nails were driven into the coffin of HD DVD. Toshiba, the driving force behind the format, announced that they were ceasing development of new players and technology. Universal Studios, the most stalwart of the format’s supporters, announced that it would start releasing movies on Blu-ray. The dominos that started to fall on January 4th, when Warner Brothers announced their plans to go Blu-ray exclusive, are all now down.
Despite the caterwauling from the HD DVD fanboys still in denial, this is a good thing. The format war was only going to lead to endless confusion that would endanger both types, so boiling it down to a single winner was necessary for the long term survival of the concept of hi def content on optical discs.
The hue and cry from the red camp is that this will mean an end to competition and higher prices without HD DVD to keep Blu-ray honest, but these people forget that the current dominant format, DVD (remember that?), always had the market to itself. Its only competition was VHS but there was no other optical disk format. The advantage of DVD over tape was so obvious that VHS was no real competition at all. This “lack of competition” for DVD has lead to $30 players in the supermarket and $11 new releases on the titles.
In truth, the real competition for Blu is from old DVD and from downloaded movies. In order for the format to achieve mass market acceptance, it can’t be too much of a premium over the established format. Also, it’s not like the format doesn’t have any internal competition. Samsung still wants to sell more Blu players than Sony, who wants to sell more Blu players than Panasonic. Also Warner Brothers would like its next new release to be the bestselling new Blu ray release of the week, so they will still offer incentives to retailers in an attempt to undercut other releases hitting the market the same day.
The competition from downloaded movies is still more theoretical than actual. There are way too many players in that marketplace and none of them seem to be compatible. Moreover, all of them appeal mostly to geeky subcultures like gamers. The real obstacle to mass adoption of downloaded movies as the chief means of distribution is the simple fact that high-def movies still require a big fat pipe out to the old internet tubes. Until fiber optic connections right to the door are as commonplace as cable TV, I don’t see downloads as more than a niche player in this market.
For the time being, Blu-ray is the winner and has the space to themselves. Let’s see what they can do with it.
About the author:
Paul's cat has violent mood swings between ennui and apathy.
